Background

History of the EU

The European Union (EU) has its roots in the post-World War II period, when European leaders sought to create a framework for peace, cooperation, and economic integration. Starting in 1951 with  the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), successive predecessor s to the EU were the European Economic Community (EEC), the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) in 1957, the Merger Treaty of Brussels, signed in 1965, the European Council, established in 1974, the  Single European Act (SEA of 1986.  Successively the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, the Treaty of Amsterdam of 1997, and others.

Throughout its evolution, the European Union has expanded its powers and responsibilities, creating a single market, a common currency, and a common foreign and security policy.

EU political system and Institutions

The European Union is governed by:

• The European Parliament (EP) is the directly elected legislative body of the EU, representing the citizens of the EU member states.
• The European Commission (EC) is the executive body of the EU, responsible for proposing and implementing EU policies and laws.
• The Council of the European Union (also known as the Council of Ministers) is the main decision-making body of the EU, representing the governments of the EU member states.
• The European Council is a forum for the heads of state or government of EU member states, which meets at least twice a year to coordinate their policies and make strategic decisions.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for managing the euro currency and setting monetary policy for the Eurozone member states.
• The ECJ is the highest court in the EU, responsible for interpreting EU law and ensuring its consistent application across the EU member states.

Economic Factors

• The EU has been affected by several global economic crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to economic stagnation, high unemployment, and increased debt levels, which have challenged the EU’s economic stability and cohesion.
• The EU’s trade relations with other countries and regions have had a significant impact on its economy. For example, the EU’s trade relations with the United States, China, and Russia have been shaped by issues such as tariffs, subsidies, and intellectual property rights.
• The EU has experienced significant migratory movements, both within and outside the EU, which have affected its labor market, social welfare systems, and cultural identity. The influx of refugees and migrants in recent years has strained the EU’s asylum and immigration policies and has raised concerns about integration and social cohesion.
• The EU’s dependence on imported energy resources and its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions have led to a focus on energy security and climate change policies. The EU has sought to diversify its energy sources and to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, while also promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency, with yet to be determined long-term effects.
• The so-called Brexit (see next paragraph) has undoubtedly affected economically the UK more than the continent, but the latter will certainly not be exempt from long term negative economic impacts.

Political Factors

• The EU has been affected by geopolitical tensions, such as the rise of new global powers, the resurgence of nationalism, and the tensions between the EU and Russia, China, and the United States. These tensions have affected the EU’s foreign and security policies, as well as its economic and trade relations.
• The EU has experienced significant political debates and divisions over migration and identity, with some member states advocating for stricter border controls and others promoting a more open and welcoming approach to migration. These debates have raised questions about the EU’s values, its democratic legitimacy, and its ability to cooperate effectively.
• The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU in 2016 (Brexit) has had a significant impact on the EU’s politics. Brexit has raised questions about the future of the EU’s integration project, the role of national sovereignty, and the balance between economic cooperation and political integration.

The 2024 election

What was expected

• Analysts expected the 2024 European Parliament elections to show a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and center-left and green parties losing votes and seats.
• Right-leaning parties are becoming increasingly dominant in national settings across many EU capitals. Whether in election results, such as the success of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) in the Dutch general election in November, or in their ability to set the agenda from the opposition – such as the National Rally’s support for France’s regressive immigration bill in December – the far right played an important role in shaping European politics in 2023.
• Populists, in some cases Anti-European, were seen as likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden).
• As a result, a populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs was seen as a possibility for the first time, affecting European-level policies, such as the foreign policy and environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.

European Union 2024-2029 Result

	2019			2024		Cambio		%
EPP European People’s Party (Christian Democrats)	176		EPP	186		10		5.68%
S&D Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament	139		S&D	135		-4		-2.88%
Renew Europe Group	102		Renew Europe	79		-23		-22.55%
ECR European Conservatives and Reformists Group	69		ECR	73		4		5.80%
Greens/EFA Greens/European Free Alliance	71		Greens/EFA	53		-18		-25.35%
ID Identity and Democracy Group	49		ID	58		9		18.37%
The Left group in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL	37		The Left	36		-1		-2.70%
NI Non-attached Members	62		NI	45		-17		-27.42%
			Others Newly elected Members not allied to any group	55

In Summary:

• Right-wing parties gained ground significantly in the 2024 EU Parliament elections.
• One key takeaway about the state of mind of the general public is the fact that the advance of the right is roughly equivalent to the losses of the Greens. In other words, more focus on cultural identity and economic efficiency and less on climate concerns.
• The expected shift to the right is attributed to the rise of nationalist and populist movements across Europe, which is motivated by public concerns about immigration, terrorism, and economic instability.
• France is a key battleground in the 2024 EU Parliament elections, with the far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen making significant gains.
• Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is a far-right, Eurosceptic party, gained a substantial number of seats in the EU Parliament.
• The expected shift to the right in the EU Parliament could have significant implications for EU policymaking, with right-wing parties likely to push for a more nationalist and protectionist agenda.

Aftermath

Immediate repercussions

The shift to the right in the EU Parliament could lead to a more skeptical approach towards EU climate policies and international agreements and a weakening of EU climate policies, such as the European Green Deal and the EU’s 2030 climate targets, as right-wing parties may prioritize economic growth and job creation over climate action.

The role of the EU in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will also be affected. Several of the nationalist movements in the UE hold positions that are less firm or decidedly opposed to the vision of the United States and the policies put forward by the UE leadership and it may be expected that its increased representation in the UE legislative body will lead to a revision of current policy.

Long term trends

The 2024 EU Parliament elections may mark a permanent realignment in EU politics, with a significant shift to the right and the rise of nationalist and populist forces, as voters become increasingly disillusioned with the EU’s institutions and decision-making processes.

The rise of nationalist and populist movements may lead to a renewed focus on national sovereignty and a rejection of EU-wide policies and institutions.

The long-term implications of a sharp right turn in EU politics could be significant, as a global actor potentially leading to a shift in global geopolitical balance of forces.

Whether this is a net positive for the people of Europe and for the world in general, depends of course on everyone’s worldview. It is significant, however, that the changes taking place are not the result of external forces, but rather of the political expression of voting majorities. Consequently, it is disingenuous to propose, as many from the left do, that the current shift in politics and representation are something to “fight” or “resist” rather than a reflection of popular will in some of the cleanest elections in the planet.

PhD Claudio Migliore